1.
Always Insist on a Margin of Safety
Valuation is the closest thing to the law of
gravity that we have in finance. In
other words, it doesn’t exist (the law of gravity), but it’s the only thing
that matters when a physical body is not resting on the ground. Therefore, valuation is the primary and fundamental
determinant of long-term returns. In
order to generate above average returns, the objective is not to buy at fair
value, but to purchase with a margin of
safety. This also works in reverse
when one sells an overvalued name – do so with a margin of safety. This notion reflects the fact the margin of
safety provides a much-needed cushion against errors and misfortunes since any determination
of a scalar number which is defined as “fair value”, is nothing more than an
estimate. If you disregard the notion of
a margin of safety, then you disregard the notion of walking a high wire
without a safety net. Do so at your own
peril.